2202.07468
Theoretical Analysis of SIRVVD Model to Provide Insight on the Target Rate of COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination in Japan
Yuto Omae, Makoto Sasaki, Jun Toyotani, Kazuyuki Hara, Hirotaka Takahashi
correctmedium confidence
- Category
- math.DS
- Journal tier
- Specialist/Solid
- Processed
- Sep 28, 2025, 12:56 AM
- arXiv Links
- Abstract ↗PDF ↗
Audit review
The paper freezes S, V1, V2, and β to obtain a linear 3-compartment infected subsystem I'(t) = A I(t), with A = β u v^T − γ I, u = (S, (1−σ1)V1, (1−σ2)V2)^T, v = (1,1,1)^T. It diagonalizes A and finds eigenvalues −γ, −γ, and β(S + (1−σ1)V1 + (1−σ2)V2) − γ, leading to the growth/neutral/decay trichotomy and the targets V2^obj and P2^obj, along with the “limitation” and “no-vaccine-needed” conditions (their Eqs. (16)-(21), (19)) . The candidate solution proves the same results via the rank-one matrix-exponential formula e^{β u v^T t} = I + ((e^{β(v^T u)t} − 1)/(v^T u)) u v^T, yielding the identical spectrum and closed form for I(t). Minor wording in the paper (“does not change” at neutrality) is clarified by the model (converges to constants), but this is not a mathematical error. Hence both are correct; the proofs differ in technique (eigendecomposition vs. rank-one exponential).
Referee report (LaTeX)
\textbf{Recommendation:} minor revisions \textbf{Journal Tier:} specialist/solid \textbf{Justification:} The paper correctly linearizes the infected subsystem under frozen S, V1, V2, β and derives the spectrum, explicit solution structure, threshold condition, and vaccination targets. The results match a clean rank-one matrix-exponential derivation. Requested changes are mainly clarity and completeness of assumptions (neutral dynamics phrasing, feasibility/edge cases) rather than substantive mathematical corrections.