2202.07780
Optimal intervention strategies for minimizing total incidence during an epidemic
Tom Britton, Lasse Leskelä
correcthigh confidence
- Category
- Not specified
- Journal tier
- Strong Field
- Processed
- Sep 28, 2025, 12:56 AM
- arXiv Links
- Abstract ↗PDF ↗
Audit review
The paper proves that, under an L1 budget ||u||1 ≤ c1 and a maximal intervention level ||u||∞ ≤ c∞, the total incidence is minimized by a single constant-level lockdown of intensity c∞ and duration c1/c∞, with a unique optimal start time (Theorem 1) . Its proof executes a five-step reduction—(i) tail truncation via uniform integrability, (ii) quantization to bang–bang controls at level c∞, (iii) prolongation from the end reduces incidence, (iv) merging disjoint active intervals into a single block, and (v) uniqueness of the timing—exactly matching the model’s outline . The model’s solution is essentially the same scheme, with a slightly different monotonicity device (using H(t)=ln S+(β/γ)R so H′=βuI≥0) rather than the paper’s vulnerability function and special-function lemma in Appendix C . One minor defect in the model write-up is a sign slip: it claims the map S∞ ↦ ln S∞ + (β/γ)(N−S∞) is strictly decreasing, whereas on the relevant range S∞ ≤ γ/β it is strictly increasing; despite this, the model correctly concludes that larger terminal H yields larger S∞ and thus lower J. Overall, both arguments reach the same result with nearly identical reductions, and the paper’s proof is complete and correct.
Referee report (LaTeX)
\textbf{Recommendation:} minor revisions \textbf{Journal Tier:} strong field \textbf{Justification:} The paper gives a definitive characterization of optimal finite-budget interventions for minimizing final size in a baseline SIR model with bounded intensity. The argument is modular, relies on precise technical lemmas (truncation, quantization, prolongation), and leverages established results (merging, unique timing). The result is both mathematically neat and practically interpretable. Minor expository enhancements would further assist readers in connecting the reduction steps and the economic intuition.