The starting dates of COVID-19 multiple waves

The paper’s procedure first applies an evidence screen to discard models whose inferred cases start-date upper bound is later than March 1, 2020, leaving τ ∈ {120,121,122,123}. It then selects among these using AIC/BIC (lowest) and, if needed, RMSE and R², choosing τ = 121 and concluding a first-wave cases upper-bound start date of February 29, 2020. The paper also reports upper-bound start dates for waves 2–6 as July 17, 2020; November 6, 2020; March 2, 2021; March 16, 2021; and July 9, 2021. The candidate solution reproduces these steps and results exactly, including the elimination set, the tie-break, the selected τ, and the listed start dates for waves 2–6. All of this matches the paper’s text, tables, and figures. See the evidence-screen and selection narrative, including the survivor set and tie-break to τ = 121 with cases upper bound on Feb 29, 2020, and the list of later-wave start upper bounds in the results section and figures.