2203.17155
Predicting extreme events from data using deep machine learning: when and where
Junjie Jiang, Zi-Gang Huang, Celso Grebogi, Ying-Cheng Lai
incompletehigh confidence
- Category
- Not specified
- Journal tier
- Strong Field
- Processed
- Sep 28, 2025, 12:56 AM
- arXiv Links
- Abstract ↗PDF ↗
Audit review
The paper clearly defines the when/where labeling, datasets, CGLE setup, and reports consistent headline metrics (e.g., CGLE AUC≈0.91/0.94 at |u|=6, p=10; AUC≈0.72/0.82 at |u|=5, p=20; 5×5 top-4≈98.37% with ResNet-50; wind 2×2 where≈92.8%) and provides enough numerical detail to be broadly reproducible . However, methodological choices like epoch selection using test-set AUC and mixed temporal splits for wind leave minor gaps in experimental rigor, and Appendix B’s ROC exposition blurs whether the score is the DCNN output or a simple intensity threshold . The model’s submission is expressly incomplete (no experiments), and while its protocol largely matches the paper, it diverges in a few key places (e.g., wind region and temporal split; handling overlapping events in where-labeling), so it cannot validate the reported targets.
Referee report (LaTeX)
\textbf{Recommendation:} minor revisions \textbf{Journal Tier:} strong field \textbf{Justification:} The paper articulates a simple, practical two-step DCNN framework for predicting the occurrence time and spatial location of extreme events in 2D fields, and demonstrates convincing performance on a paradigmatic PDE (CGLE) and real North Atlantic wind data. Implementation details for CGLE are sufficiently specified, and the trade-offs are well illustrated. Minor methodological clarity is needed regarding model selection (use of validation vs test data), temporal splits for wind, and the precise scoring used for ROC. These adjustments would strengthen rigor without altering the main contribution.