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2205.13676

Fast variable selection makes scalable Gaussian process BSS-ANOVA a speedy and accurate choice for tabular and time series regression

David S. Mebane, Kyle Hayes, Ali Baheri

incompletemedium confidence
Category
Not specified
Journal tier
Specialist/Solid
Processed
Sep 28, 2025, 12:56 AM

Audit review

The paper explicitly states the Gibbs full conditionals for β, σ^2, and τ^2 (its eqs. (10)–(15)), matching the model’s derivations, including the (P−1)/2 shape for τ^2 when the intercept is unpenalized . It also claims O(NP) training and O(P) per-point prediction in the abstract and notes empirically that the rate-limiting step is constructing X in O(NP) time . For forward selection, the paper presents the algorithm and its tol-based stopping rule but provides no formal halting proof; it simply says the algorithm returns the optimum model . The model supplies a clean termination argument under a finite truncation P, which closes this gap. However, the model also asserts that X^T X is block-diagonal (hence accumulable in O(NP)) due to basis orthogonality; this structural claim is not supported in the paper and generally requires stronger assumptions (orthogonality with respect to the empirical design), so that part is incomplete. Overall: the paper omits a formal halting proof and some parameterization clarifications, while the model adds them but introduces an unsupported structural assumption about X^T X.

Referee report (LaTeX)

\textbf{Recommendation:} minor revisions

\textbf{Journal Tier:} specialist/solid

\textbf{Justification:}

The paper offers a practical, scalable GP approach with explicit Gibbs updates and a simple forward selection strategy, supported by experiments. The central claims are sound and valuable to practitioners. However, the algorithmic description would benefit from a formal halting proof tied to a stated truncation and clearer prior parameterization details. These revisions are minor and readily addressable.