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2206.01803

Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in a SIS model with vaccination and breakthrough infection

Ariel Félix Gualtieri, Carolina de la Cal, Augusto Francisco Toma, Pedro Hecht

incompletemedium confidence
Category
math.DS
Journal tier
Specialist/Solid
Processed
Sep 28, 2025, 12:56 AM

Audit review

The paper specifies the 4-ODE SIS model with three susceptible classes and explores it numerically, reporting a plateau (endemic) prevalence and monotone parameter sensitivities, but it provides no mathematical proofs and even calibrates parameters via R0 = β/γ from a single-class SIS model rather than the 3-class system it actually studies . The model solution gives a rigorous framework: it derives the correct DFE, an R0 consistent with the 3-class chain, an endemic-equilibrium equation G(i)=0, Hirsch-based convergence arguments, and comparative statics. However, its proof of uniqueness of the endemic equilibrium is incomplete: showing G′(i*) < 0 proves the root is simple, not unique; global convergence relies on (unproven) uniqueness. Hence, the paper is incomplete (no proofs; questionable R0 calibration), and the model solution is also incomplete (gap in uniqueness/global convergence).

Referee report (LaTeX)

\textbf{Recommendation:} major revisions

\textbf{Journal Tier:} specialist/solid

\textbf{Justification:}

The model is clearly described and simulations are informative, but the paper lacks foundational analysis: a model-consistent basic reproduction number, equilibrium existence/uniqueness, and convergence guarantees. Incorporating these results would substantially strengthen the scientific value. The candidate solution supplies most of the missing mathematics but leaves a gap in the uniqueness proof essential for global convergence.