2206.01803
Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in a SIS model with vaccination and breakthrough infection
Ariel Félix Gualtieri, Carolina de la Cal, Augusto Francisco Toma, Pedro Hecht
incompletemedium confidence
- Category
- math.DS
- Journal tier
- Specialist/Solid
- Processed
- Sep 28, 2025, 12:56 AM
- arXiv Links
- Abstract ↗PDF ↗
Audit review
The paper specifies the 4-ODE SIS model with three susceptible classes and explores it numerically, reporting a plateau (endemic) prevalence and monotone parameter sensitivities, but it provides no mathematical proofs and even calibrates parameters via R0 = β/γ from a single-class SIS model rather than the 3-class system it actually studies . The model solution gives a rigorous framework: it derives the correct DFE, an R0 consistent with the 3-class chain, an endemic-equilibrium equation G(i)=0, Hirsch-based convergence arguments, and comparative statics. However, its proof of uniqueness of the endemic equilibrium is incomplete: showing G′(i*) < 0 proves the root is simple, not unique; global convergence relies on (unproven) uniqueness. Hence, the paper is incomplete (no proofs; questionable R0 calibration), and the model solution is also incomplete (gap in uniqueness/global convergence).
Referee report (LaTeX)
\textbf{Recommendation:} major revisions \textbf{Journal Tier:} specialist/solid \textbf{Justification:} The model is clearly described and simulations are informative, but the paper lacks foundational analysis: a model-consistent basic reproduction number, equilibrium existence/uniqueness, and convergence guarantees. Incorporating these results would substantially strengthen the scientific value. The candidate solution supplies most of the missing mathematics but leaves a gap in the uniqueness proof essential for global convergence.