Stochastic Resonance in Climate Reddening Increases the Risk of Cyclic Ecosystem Extinction via Phase-tipping.

Hassan Alkhayuon, Jessa Marley, Sebastian Wieczorek, Rebecca C. Tyson

incompletehigh confidence

Category: Not specified
Journal tier: Strong Field
Processed: Sep 28, 2025, 12:56 AM
arXiv Links: Abstract ↗PDF ↗

Audit review

The paper establishes the phenomena (stochastic-resonance-shaped dependence of finite-time extinction risk on the switching parameter ρ, and an amplitude effect in Δr) by simulation and qualitative mechanism sketches, but does not give mathematical proofs. The candidate solution provides a structured proof strategy under explicit dynamical and stochastic assumptions and correctly reconciles most claims; however, its Step 5 argument for strictly shorter post-escape time-to-extinction as Δr increases relies on a comparison of coupled (N,P) flows that is not fully justified and appears circular. Hence, the paper is empirically compelling but mathematically incomplete, and the model’s proof is promising yet contains a key gap.

Referee report (LaTeX)

\textbf{Recommendation:} major revisions

\textbf{Journal Tier:} strong field

\textbf{Justification:}

The work offers compelling numerical evidence and an articulate mechanistic account of P-tipping under climate reddening, including a clear resonance picture. However, the absence of formal statements and proofs limits its mathematical contribution. The candidate solution suggests a viable route to rigor, but also exposes a nontrivial gap in comparing post-escape extinction times across amplitudes. Addressing these issues with precise propositions and supporting arguments would considerably strengthen the paper.