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2402.04585

A Physics-Informed Auto-Learning Framework for Developing Stochastic Conceptual Models for ENSO Diversity

Yinling Zhang, Nan Chen, Jérôme Vialard, Xianghui Fang

correctmedium confidence
Category
Not specified
Journal tier
Strong Field
Processed
Sep 28, 2025, 12:56 AM

Audit review

The paper explicitly defines and parameterizes the 4D IaIsM (Eq. 8.4, Table 6) with an intraseasonal WWB variable τ driven by state‑dependent multiplicative noise στ(TC), and validates it under a unified 20,000‑year/271×70‑year protocol; it shows that all models except the 3D IaM meet the validation metrics, while the 3D model fails on higher‑order moments, ACFs, and extreme/multi‑year event frequencies. The candidate solution mirrors these results and reasoning. Minor issues: it reverses the reported TC/TE recovery correlations (~0.75 for TC, ~0.82 for TE in the paper), and slightly overstates minimality by implying a universal impossibility for any 3D model within the library, which the paper does not formally prove. Key assumptions in the paper (e.g., adopting the multiplicative noise functional form from the reference model rather than learning it) should be noted.

Referee report (LaTeX)

\textbf{Recommendation:} minor revisions

\textbf{Journal Tier:} strong field

\textbf{Justification:}

The paper convincingly identifies a minimal 4D stochastic conceptual model for ENSO diversity via a careful auto-learning and validation framework. Results are robust across multiple diagnostics, and the unified long-integration protocol with 95\% CIs is a strength. Minor clarifications are needed regarding the identifiability of multiplicative noise functions and the exact nonlinear content of the minimal model.