2411.13130
The impact of recovery rate heterogeneity in achieving herd immunity
Gabriel Turinici
correctmedium confidence
- Category
- Not specified
- Journal tier
- Specialist/Solid
- Processed
- Sep 28, 2025, 12:56 AM
- arXiv Links
- Abstract ↗PDF ↗
Audit review
The paper proves, under hypotheses (8)–(11), that the heterogeneous SIR model has herd immunity iff E[1/γ]<∞ (Proposition 3), and extends this to SEIR with 0<αmin≤α≤αmax and E(0)+I(0)>0 (Proposition 5), by a clean inequality-based argument built on equations (1)–(3) and (26)–(29) and bounds (9) (see Proposition 3 and its proof, and the SEIR extension ). The candidate solution’s SIR argument is essentially correct and even yields sharp time–integral identities. However, its SEIR part claims the identity α∫E=E0+S0−S∞ without the necessary −E(∞) term; this gap is nontrivial for the necessity direction and is not justified by an argument that E(∞)=0. Hence, as written, the model’s SEIR proof is flawed, while the paper’s proofs are correct.
Referee report (LaTeX)
\textbf{Recommendation:} minor revisions \textbf{Journal Tier:} specialist/solid \textbf{Justification:} The paper provides a crisp and useful equivalence—herd immunity iff the mean recovery time is finite—in heterogeneous SIR and SEIR models with bounded contact kernels. The argument is simple, robust, and avoids subtle integral identities. With small clarifications (measure normalization, explicit exclusion of the trivial I(0)=1 case), the paper is publication-ready and will be of interest to the epidemiological modeling community.