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2504.06668

A Novel Nonlinear Fertility Catastrophe Model Based on Thom’s Differential Equations of Morphogenesis

Rolando Gonzales Martinez

wrongmedium confidence
Category
math.DS
Journal tier
Note/Short/Other
Processed
Sep 28, 2025, 12:56 AM

Audit review

The paper defines −V(ξ;α,β)=αξ+½βξ²−¼ξ⁴ and asserts that equilibria solve α+βξ−ξ³=0, which is standard. But it then claims the “Cardan discriminant” is δ=27α−4β³ and uses δ≤0 vs δ>0 to separate unimodal/bimodal regimes. This is mathematically incorrect: for the depressed cubic t³+pt+q with p=−β, q=−α, the classical discriminant is Δ=−4p³−27q²=4β³−27α². The model solution gives the correct partition (three real equilibria iff 4β³−27α²>0), including the essential α↦−α symmetry. The paper’s linear dependence on α contradicts this symmetry and misclassifies regions; see the paper’s statements around “α+βξ−ξ³=0 … Cardan discriminant δ=27α−4β³ … unimodal (δ≤0) vs bimodal (δ>0)” .

Referee report (LaTeX)

\textbf{Recommendation:} major revisions

\textbf{Journal Tier:} note/short/other

\textbf{Justification:}

The manuscript presents an interesting application of cusp-catastrophe ideas to fertility dynamics and ABM, but its central mathematical criterion—the discriminant used to separate unimodal from bimodal regimes—is stated incorrectly. This directly affects the interpretation of the bifurcation set and the empirical narrative built around it. With the discriminant corrected and the dependent analysis revised, the contribution could be solid; until then, the conclusions are not reliable.