2504.20758
Influence network reconstruction from discrete time-series of count data modelled by multidimensional Hawkes processes
Naratip Santitissadeekorn, Martin Short, David J. B. Lloyd
correctmedium confidence
- Category
- Not specified
- Journal tier
- Strong Field
- Processed
- Sep 28, 2025, 12:56 AM
- arXiv Links
- Abstract ↗PDF ↗
Audit review
The paper develops (i) an MM scheme for the discrete-time Hawkes count model by Jensen majorization of −∑k ΔN_k log λ_k, yielding decoupled, closed-form parameter updates (with a small-γ approximation in the denominator), and (ii) an ExPKF whose information-form update has a diagonal-plus-rank-1 structure enabling efficient and parallel per-node filtering. These are stated in their equations (3.1)–(3.6), (3.7)–(3.12) for MM and (4.1)–(4.6) for ExPKF, together with the known-decay assumption for ExPKF and per-row independence for MM. The candidate solution re-derives the same MM idea using explicit responsibilities and yields closed-form μ and α updates with exact ∑k s_{j,k} denominators, and it plugs the correct gradient/Hessian of log λ into the ExPKF. The only mismatch is computational: the paper shows the information update can be expressed as a diagonal term plus a rank-1 outer product without dropping the Hessian, while the candidate suggests dropping the residual-Hessian (OPG/Fisher) or a degenerate case to achieve rank-1. Both treat ‘structure recovery’ operationally/empirically rather than proving consistency. Overall, the approaches are substantially the same and correct, with minor differences in approximation/implementation details (paper: small-γ approximation in MM; model: optional OPG in ExPKF) .
Referee report (LaTeX)
\textbf{Recommendation:} minor revisions \textbf{Journal Tier:} strong field \textbf{Justification:} The manuscript presents a consistent and practically useful framework for reconstructing influence networks from count data via discrete-time Hawkes models, offering both a batch MM estimator and an online ExPKF with efficient updates. The methods are well-motivated, derivations are sound, and the empirical validation is convincing. Minor revisions would strengthen clarity and rigor, especially around explicit assumptions, the small-γ approximation in MM, and a clearer algebraic explanation of the diagonal-plus-rank-1 structure in ExPKF.