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2504.20758

Influence network reconstruction from discrete time-series of count data modelled by multidimensional Hawkes processes

Naratip Santitissadeekorn, Martin Short, David J. B. Lloyd

correctmedium confidence
Category
Not specified
Journal tier
Strong Field
Processed
Sep 28, 2025, 12:56 AM

Audit review

The paper develops (i) an MM scheme for the discrete-time Hawkes count model by Jensen majorization of −∑k ΔN_k log λ_k, yielding decoupled, closed-form parameter updates (with a small-γ approximation in the denominator), and (ii) an ExPKF whose information-form update has a diagonal-plus-rank-1 structure enabling efficient and parallel per-node filtering. These are stated in their equations (3.1)–(3.6), (3.7)–(3.12) for MM and (4.1)–(4.6) for ExPKF, together with the known-decay assumption for ExPKF and per-row independence for MM. The candidate solution re-derives the same MM idea using explicit responsibilities and yields closed-form μ and α updates with exact ∑k s_{j,k} denominators, and it plugs the correct gradient/Hessian of log λ into the ExPKF. The only mismatch is computational: the paper shows the information update can be expressed as a diagonal term plus a rank-1 outer product without dropping the Hessian, while the candidate suggests dropping the residual-Hessian (OPG/Fisher) or a degenerate case to achieve rank-1. Both treat ‘structure recovery’ operationally/empirically rather than proving consistency. Overall, the approaches are substantially the same and correct, with minor differences in approximation/implementation details (paper: small-γ approximation in MM; model: optional OPG in ExPKF) .

Referee report (LaTeX)

\textbf{Recommendation:} minor revisions

\textbf{Journal Tier:} strong field

\textbf{Justification:}

The manuscript presents a consistent and practically useful framework for reconstructing influence networks from count data via discrete-time Hawkes models, offering both a batch MM estimator and an online ExPKF with efficient updates. The methods are well-motivated, derivations are sound, and the empirical validation is convincing. Minor revisions would strengthen clarity and rigor, especially around explicit assumptions, the small-γ approximation in MM, and a clearer algebraic explanation of the diagonal-plus-rank-1 structure in ExPKF.