2507.07078
TEMPERATURE INDUCED TIPPING IN A TWO BOX OCEAN CIRCULATION MODEL
Jasmine Noory
incompletemedium confidence
- Category
- Not specified
- Journal tier
- Specialist/Solid
- Processed
- Sep 28, 2025, 12:56 AM
- arXiv Links
- Abstract ↗PDF ↗
Audit review
The paper correctly identifies two saddle-node bifurcations in the 1D reduced model and gives a qualitatively correct regime diagram, but it provides only a coarse computational scan (θ ≈ 0.955 and θ ≈ 1.13) without the analytic fold conditions. It also contains a misprinted potential function. The model solution derives the exact fold set, proves there are exactly two folds when p* > 2/√m2, and computes the fold locations precisely (θ ≈ 0.931 and θ ≈ 1.138 for p* = 1.1, m2 = 6.2), reconciling the qualitative picture while correcting the numerics.
Referee report (LaTeX)
\textbf{Recommendation:} minor revisions
\textbf{Journal Tier:} specialist/solid
\textbf{Justification:}
The paper delivers a useful, conceptually clear message: when the equilibrium temperature gradient is treated as the control parameter in a standard two-box AMOC model, the reduced 1D dynamics exhibit two saddle-node bifurcations with a multistable window, paralleling the well-known freshwater case. However, it relies on a coarse numerical scan for the threshold values and prints an incorrect potential formula. Adding an analytic fold derivation and correcting the formula would make the results robust and reproducible.